For a lot of makers, a few weeks of the year drive a huge share of sales: the holidays, a gifting season, a recurring market. Get the forecast right and it's your best stretch ever. Get it wrong and you either sell out early and leave money on the table, or overproduce and stare at leftovers in January.
Start with last year (and your own history)
Your single best forecasting tool is your own sales history. What sold during the same season last year? Which products spiked, and by how much? Even a rough "we did about X of these last December" beats guessing from scratch.
Lead time is everything
The trap isn't usually the forecast. It's running out of time. Work backward from the season: how long does a batch take, how long to get materials, and when do you need finished stock ready? Then start early enough that production isn't a panic in the final week.
Forecast materials, not just products
If you expect to make 200 candles, you don't just need 200 candles' worth of plan. You need the wax, wicks, jars, and labels in hand, ordered with their own lead times. Translate your product forecast into a materials shopping list early, while suppliers can still deliver.
- Look at last year's sales for the same season, product by product.
- Adjust for how you've grown and anything new this year.
- Convert the product plan into a materials list using your recipes.
- Work backward from the season's start date so production finishes on time.
Most seasonal misses aren't bad forecasts. They're good forecasts started two weeks too late.
Don't over-forecast the slow movers
A busy season tempts you to make a lot of everything. Resist it for the slow movers: overbuilding products that don't sell well ties up materials and cash you'll want for your winners. Forecast generously where demand is proven, conservatively where it isn't.
Keepsel works from your own sales and stock. From the Maker plan, Suli's reorder list shows which materials will run short and when to order, and from the Team plan, Suli tells you what needs to go into production. So planning a busy season is reading your numbers, not reading tea leaves.